Key Factors Influencing the Market

1. Inflation Data on Watch

   
   

   Investors are treading cautiously ahead of today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Producer Price Index (PPI) later this week. These readings could significantly influence expectations for interest-rate policy. Pre-market futures suggest only modest gains, with the Dow up ~0.2%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up ~0.1%  .

2. Earnings Movers

   
   

   • BigBear.ai plunged nearly 29% after reporting a substantial EBITDA loss and slashing its revenue outlook  .

   • Mercury Systems surged over 9%, beating expectations  .

   • Celanese dropped 14% despite solid Q2 results, hurt by a cautious Q3 forecast  .

   • Intel rose about 3.3% after a positive meeting between its CEO and the President  .

3. 
   

4. Macro Risks Emerging

   
   

   • Morgan Stanley highlights risks ahead: a cooling labor market, earnings dependence on a handful of tech giants, and potential stagflation driven by tariffs  .

   • Stifel warns of a possible 14% pullback in the S&P 500 before year-end if economic conditions worsen, advocating for defensive plays in value sectors  .

   • Strategists also caution that the AI-driven rally may be turning shaky, with semiconductor indices lagging behind the broader market—a potential sign of an overheated bubble  .

5. 
   

What It All Means for Today

• Expect measured, cautious trading with volatility likely kept in check unless CPI or PPI surprises emerge.

• Key Catalysts: CPI data release and fresh earnings updates are poised to steer intraday sentiment.

• Strategy Insight: In this environment, traders may favor selective stock picks rather than broad index exposure.